The Italian Miracle (*)


(*) Poco di miracoloso, è solo ironia. Italy is a mess, non c’entra la messa…

Un articolo di Paul Krugman, premio Nobel dell’Economia 2008 fa strame in poche parole della retorica europeista sulla moneta unica e sull’austerity. Se rispetto ad un anno fa i rendimenti dei Titoli di Stato italiani si sono abbassati è perchè è venuto meno il rischio di liquidità per effetto della predisposizione della BCE con Draghi come prestatore di ultima istanza.

The Italian Miracle – dal Blog di Paul Krugman sul New York Time  29/04/2013

NYTItaly is a mess. Yes, it has a prime minster, finally; but the chances of serious economic reform are minimal, the willingness to persist in ever-harsher austerity — which the Rehns of this world tell us is essential — is evaporating. It’s all bad. But a funny thing is happening:

042913krugman2-blog480

What’s going on here? I think that we’re seeing strong evidence for the De Grauwe view that soaring rates in the European periphery had relatively little to do with solvency concerns, and were instead a case of market panic made possible by the fact that countries that joined the euro no longer had a lender of last resort, and were subject to potential liquidity crises.

What’s happened now is that the ECB sounds increasingly willing to act as the necessary lender, and that in general the softening of austerity rhetoric makes it seem less likely that Italy will be forced into default by sheer shortage of cash. Hence, falling yields and much-reduced pressure.

It also, to be a bit self-justifying, shows that back when I used to cite Italy in the 1990s as an example of how advanced countries can carry high debt loads, I wasn’t being naive. Back then Italy had its own currency, and debt denominated in that currency; yes, it was pegged to the Deutsche Mark, but there was always the option of unpegging. By joining the euro, Italy in effect turned itself, macroeconomically, into a third-world country with debts in someone else’s currency, and exposed itself to debt crisis; now, thanks to the Draghi put, it has stepped half way back into the first world.

__________a proposito, visto che non lo ricordavo:

unpeg /ʌnˈpɛɡ/ vb ( -pegs, -pegging, -pegged)(transitive)

  1. to remove the peg or pegs from, esp to unfasten
  2. to allow (prices, wages, etc) to rise and fall freely

____________Ancora di Paul Krugman, su NYT:  Legends of the Fail 10/11/2011

Se però non volete/potete leggere l’originale una sintesi in: Paul Krugman: “L’Italia con l’euro si è ridotta ad un paese del Terzo Mondo” da Informazione Consapevole

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